Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.687344 29.559885 32.835020 36.898693 41.883687 47.909884 55.928869
2025-02-16 22.848854 26.547021 31.141963 37.462289 46.277302 58.769809 79.269896
2025-02-23 19.985275 23.973111 29.230682 37.034582 49.101701 68.826260 109.176551
2025-03-02 18.117971 22.281263 28.036651 37.145482 52.607897 81.766559 159.349716
2025-03-09 16.599700 20.797221 26.813176 36.832218 55.234565 94.881497 237.219728
2025-03-16 15.359067 19.523515 25.664855 36.328203 57.290837 108.507731 371.591396
2025-03-23 14.364421 18.481871 24.702618 35.904013 59.334313 124.238684 665.156959
2025-03-30 13.560153 17.633734 23.921820 35.625765 61.594386 143.564573 1656.346175
2025-04-06 12.745238 16.693710 22.878634 34.659122 61.933950 157.304452 6631.823687
2025-04-13 12.510122 16.618198 23.242399 36.464035 69.974755 219.829972 NaN
2025-04-20 11.956236 15.993477 22.598505 36.102184 72.038081 259.298829 NaN
2025-04-27 11.552995 15.577578 22.272696 36.351544 76.112358 332.346737 NaN
2025-05-04 11.196917 15.218376 22.022087 36.751133 81.099776 456.431573 NaN
2025-05-11 10.835419 14.825671 21.673286 36.872448 85.344939 639.617091 NaN
2025-05-18 10.416822 14.312300 21.057107 36.267814 86.646454 819.743445 NaN
2025-05-25 10.107692 13.964350 20.721750 36.291542 90.653256 1303.510502 NaN
2025-06-01 9.782860 13.571299 20.268594 35.953886 93.038648 2116.990033 NaN
2025-06-08 9.465321 13.174362 19.778713 35.454048 94.524708 3761.498327 NaN
2025-06-15 9.179781 12.818625 19.344229 35.039940 96.330483 10160.532142 NaN
2025-06-22 8.928670 12.510595 18.982343 34.769816 98.858183 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.628469 12.104510 18.401565 33.840222 97.400555 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.601095 12.173255 18.772097 35.572300 112.811095 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.384218 11.896811 18.422777 35.224864 115.191727 NaN NaN